Spring Statement 2019: house price growth revised down as Chancellor releases more cash to build affordable homes

13 March 2019

The Chancellor Philip Hammond has announced extra funding for affordable homes in the Spring Statement 2019, while the OBR has revised down its expectations for house price growth. 

Housing supply is on track to reach 300,000 new homes a year by the end of this parliament, according to the Chancellor - the highest level since 1970. This year 220,000 additional homes will be built - the second highest level in 31 years. 

The OBR's estimate for house price growth has been revised since the last measure before the Autumn Budget 2019. It now predicts house prices to collapse to negative growth by the end of 2019 before recovering to higher-than-previously-expected growth of 4% by 2021. 



In the Autumn Budget last year, the Chancellor announced a series of measures, which he said today are already helping towards this new home target. This includes the abolition of stamp duty for most first-time buyers and the continued roll out of Help to Buy equity loans. 

Today he announced additional help to deliver this government pledge.

This includes an “Affordable Homes Guarantee Scheme” whereby the government will guarantee £3 billion of housing association borrowing to build 30,000 affordable homes.

He has also announced that £717 million from the Housing Infrastructure Fund will be used to ‘unlock’ up to 37,000 new homes at various sites, including Old Oak Common in London, the Oxford-Cambridge Arc and in Cheshire.

As much as £445million from the fund will be used to unlock over 22,000 homes in the Oxford-Cambridge Arc. 

Meanwhile £260million will go towards the Borderlands Growth Deal, which on top of the £102million announced recently for Carlisle from the Housing Infrastructure Fund means up to £362million of funding in the Borderlands area.  

Simon Gooderham, joint managing partner at property auctioneer Cheffins, says: “Whilst no one expected this Spring Statement to bring with it a raft of changes for the UK property industry, announced measures for increased funding for affordable homes is welcomed.

“In an area where affordability issues are reaching crisis point, the release of land for thousands of new homes in Cambridge hopefully ought to help allow the local younger generation to clamber onto the housing ladder.

“Any measures introduced in order to speed up housing delivery will be met with open arms as shortages of stock have reached unprecedented levels in parts of the UK.” 

Mr Gooderham adds: “It is unfortunate that the Chancellor did not tackle the issue of stamp duty which has had Britain’s housing market in a stranglehold and a relaxation of the levy, or even a holiday from it, could have gone some way to kick-start the market, particularly amongst those looking to downsize.

“In context, stamp duty receipts have fallen significantly in 2019, down approximately £100m in comparison to January 2018, which highlights the lack of movement within the housing industry.

“Until certain factions of the market are incentivised to move house, rather than penalised for it, the enormous swathe of second-steppers and family movers will remain locked in to their current properties, which will do nothing for Mr Hammond’s stamp duty bill moving forwards.

“No longer should stamp duty be the government’s golden goose and rather it should be analysed and amended in line with the current economic conditions.”

Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals says: “Aside from announcing a new £3 billion Affordable Homes Guarantee scheme, the Spring Statement didn’t deliver much for the property market, which was expected given the lack of stability in the political arena and the no-deal Commons vote later today.

“What is needed are measures to improve consumer confidence as the fundamental issue that is holding the housing market back is Brexit and poor sentiment as a result, particularly evident in London and the South East.

“Other areas around the UK have not been as affected and people that need to move are doing so successfully. Transactions levels have dropped year on year, but only very marginally so the perception of a ‘failing market’ is not quite reality when you look at the bigger picture.

“If we leave the EU with a no-deal then some people may continue to delay moving as they wait and see what happens in the market. House prices and transactions could fall further in some areas, but not by much and the impact will only be short-lived as the current uncertainty begins to lift.”

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