UK house prices expected to rise by up to £9,000 on average in 2019, says Halifax

8 January 2019

Halifax expects property prices to rise between 2% and 4% in 2019, although much will be dependent on the outcome of Brexit.

The UK housing market ended the year on a positive note, with house prices going up by 2.2% in December, reversing the 1.2% fall the previous month, according to Halifax's measurements. 

On an annual basis, house prices rose 1.3% in the three months to December, up from the 0.3% annual growth rate recorded in November.

The average UK house price was £229,729, up from £225,995 in December.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, predicts house prices will rise between 2% and 4% price this year. That would amount to between £4,594 and £9,188 on average. 

He says that while growth will be slightly stronger than in 2018, it remains fairly subdued by modern comparison.

“This expectation will clearly be dependent on the Brexit outcome, with risks to both sides of our forecast."

He says that as well as Brexit, a number of other factors will also impact the market in 2019.

Mr Galley adds: "The need to raise a significant deposit still acts as a restraint for those looking to buy a new home, limiting the number of potential purchasers.

“This year, mortgage payment affordability is more difficult to predict. There are competing pressures with signs of positive annual pay growth supporting affordability, but risks associated with the potential for higher interest rates are pulling in the other direction. On balance we do not see affordability pushing house price growth significantly in either direction.

“The shortage of homes for sale and continuing low levels of housebuilding both constrain the supply of houses, and in turn support high prices, which will continue to inhibit demand in 2019.”

The figures from Halifax contrast with that of rival Nationwide which reported a dip last week.

Nationwide says house prices fell by 0.7% between November and December, taking the average price down to £212,281.

Theresa May is currently trying to overcome opposition to the draft Brexit deal agreed with EU leaders, which has raised fears of a possible disorderly no-deal departure.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has warned that in the worst-case scenario a no-deal Brexit could spark an economic crash that could see house prices plummet by up to 30%. Mr Carney first gave a warning over house prices in September.

Lucy Pendleton, founder director of independent estate agents James Pendleton, says: “The country has marched gamely up to Christmas and, with three months to go before Brexit, is refusing to blink. Last month there were fears the Brexit switch had been flipped as house price growth plumbed six-year lows.

“It looked for a moment like the UK could have dived for cover into wait-and-see territory in November after a year in which Brexit appeared to cast a remarkably short shadow at times. However, these figures breathe new life into claims Britons think this storm can be weathered.

“The imminent prospect of the UK's most traumatic geopolitical lurch back in time is simply failing to tame buyer confidence, which is proving to be remarkably resilient. Even in the face of a no-deal Brexit, Britons are betting on the UK making a success of it rather than sitting on their hands and dodging untimely financial risks.”


In reply to by anonymous_stub (not verified)

Up by 9%? headlines yesterday said they're going to drop by 30%. Anyway, what's 'positive' about a massive price in things that are un-affordable anyway?

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