house prices to fall by 35% from peak
I think it could be between 15% and 20%
From October 2007, when the decline began, I expected House Prices to fall by 50%. Currently the total decline todate is around 27%, 11% in 2007 and 16% in 2008, so we're on course for a further 23% decline between now and the General Election in Spring 2010.
Another interesting question is when will people return to the property market? My money (if I had any) would would be on buyer numbers increasing at the end of the first quarter. What do other people think, shoulf I stick the house on the market now or wait until there is clear evidence that people can buy again?
I HAVE BEEN IN THE HOUSE BUILDING GAME FOR THE PAST 45 YEARS AND SEEN ALL THIS BEFORE. THE BIGGEST OUTLAY FOR A HOUSE IS THE LAND AS THEY ARE NOT MAKING ANY MORE I DO NOT THINK IT WILL DROP THAT MUCH.
IN THE 90/S NO WORK, TRADESMEN LEFT, BRICKWORKS CLOSED, BUILDING WORK STARTED NO TRADESMEN, ONLY ONE BRICKWORKS LEFT, PRICES UP. THIS CYCLE OF EVENTS OCCUR EVERY 5 TO 10 YEARS.
THE ONLY ONES TO SUFFER ARE THE THE ONES THAT BORROWED 120% NEW HOUSE, NEW CAR, FOREIGN HOLIDAY,NEGATIVE EQUITY.
THE SENSIBLE ONES ARE STILL MAKING MONEY PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH !
HOUSE PRICES WILL GO UP AS QUICK AS COME DOWN
I think its going to be another 15% this year. Things just could not keep going as they had been over the last 5 years or so. I had a valuation on my home last week and it came in at £230000 (coincidently exactly what I needed for my remortgage application) At its peak in 2007 it was valued at just under £250000 but a realistic value today would be £220000 - Thats a 12% drop in my area in 18 months and I think we'll see similar again this year. As a result of this and needing to secure a LTV of 60% for the best remortgage deal I have applied for my new deal as early as possible. I was seeing my LTV (or equity) being eroded every month.
I believe that house prices will not fall further than 5-8% this year. The continuing fall in prices is not helping sales to progress, so, there is little benefit in reducing prices. Once all the banks have announced all thier toxic waste and cleared the air, business of banking will re-start. At the end of the day, banks exist by taking in money and lending it out at a profit. If they are not doing that, then, they are not'banking'. They should then close up shop and call themselves something else. The question, is which bank will 'blink' first. My money is on Barclays.
Good luck eberyone form the coming year.
I expect house prices to fall a further 8 to 12% over 2009.
No one knows but what is sure we are a small island and NOT building enough houses for the population growth singles etc etc so simple simply supply and demand will makes houses go back sooner or later as they have double every 7 years.
We are not Spain or USA we have a limit on land so stick with it or bargain hard if you are lucky enough to have cash now
I think they are still about 30 percent over priced.
With earnings growth and two more years of decent falls then things will look very good.
It's a real shame about the stupid ones that got in at the top and are now looking over the edge of a cliff.
The market must and it will fall back to a level where they are afordable.
The banks simply will not lend at these prices as they expect house prices to fall further.
You would need to be really stupid on a monunental scale to lend a large amount of money knowing the item being purchased was falling in price.
Even the banks aren't that daft.
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