Outlook for the housing market

image
Rebecca Atkinson
Thu, 30/04/2009 - 10:55

Experts say that low consumer confidence is just as big a barrier to the recovery of the property market as the limited availability of mortgage credit.

What is your view on the outlook for the housing market? At what point do you think prices will bottom and how quickly do you think we can expect to see a recovery?

Are you looking to buy or sell as the moment, or have you put your plans on hold in light of the downturn?

Share your views here...

‹ remortaging on a shared equitity scheme Opinion please ›
Dorset:

I'm concerned that the slow down in the fall in property prices is due to seasonal activity. If this is the case & lending does not improve I can only see prices falling further over the next year.

Thu, 30/04/2009 - 20:45
Guest (not verified):

2010 - Q3 or Q4 should see the bottom, but I certainly wouldn't expect a V shape recovery from there on in. I would expect that growth from Q4 2010 would be extremely slow (1%-2%) and could be stagnant for a number of years, as was the case in the early-mid 90's.

I think we could be 10 years away or more from seeing 2007 prices.

The thing is, the credit crunch hasn't finished and it's effects have not worked their way through the system. Unemployment is going to rise significantly and people's spending (who are left working) is going to be squeezed by tax increases to pay off Darling's debt.

You've also got interest rates which have to rise sometime. Everything points to there being less money in the economy.

UK also needs to re-establish its identity and it's usefulness to the world. Now the miracle financial sector has collapsed (and will not return, I don't see what we do apart from have an ability to shop. I'm not saying we don't have a future in this world, but I am scratching my head as to what that is going to be.

Fri, 01/05/2009 - 14:21
Guest mel68 (not verified):

I agree that there is only one to go and that property prices will continue to fall over the next year and possibly into next year and then perhaps stabilise we will not see a rise like we had for a long long time! It has caused chaos and unrealistic profits. The banks have profitted big time causing property to be reposessed simply by lendind out too much to those who could not afford and have stretched themselves too far - and now do you really think they will risk it all over again!? No chance.

Perhaps best renting , let the state pay for your care homes in the future as after all the government will take your home off you to pay for care costs! True fact tho!

Rising unemployment, redundancies on the increase, no pay increase, low pound to the Euro, what do we have to look forward to! We cant even afford to go on holiday! NOw its swine flue anything else you would care to throw at us!?

Good job am not religious or I would say it was an act of GOD or Budda or another God!

Lets get this country back to being truly British, stop immigration now close the borders we have enough British citizens now! We must be strict! People who come and live here must abide by British rule just like we would in another country..... it is so wrong and we try to be so politically correct but so many immigrants are here in Britain and see us Brits as infidels! I think Im missing the bigger picture some how.

Fri, 01/05/2009 - 14:24
Guest (not verified):

I have been looking to buy since July 2008. A second home by the beach on the south coast.

November 2008 may well have been the absolute bottom, I have seen a recovery where I am looking.

Rising prices are masked for a while because what happens is that the offers get closer to the asking price. 20% OFF asking was common in Autumn 2008 .... now, maybe, 10% is what will buy it.

That's an effective increase of 10% - however, I think the Spring 2009 surge is simply a seasonal blip ... something which will happen in any case.

Now we are past Easter I believe that we will see a renewed fall in prices - those houses which didn't sell over Easter are simply well over-priced.

With falling payrises, nil bonuses and job security worries will see prices falling and not recovering for a long, long, time.

Fri, 01/05/2009 - 19:47
Dorset:

Crikey I thought your post made a lot of sense until you start ranting like someone from the bnp! I don't think it is immigration that has caused the banking system to collapse!!

 

Sun, 03/05/2009 - 21:06
Simon-Weye:

I think house prices have plateaued for a few months due to the tax money pumped into the lending regime making funds temporarily more readily available and the historically low interest rates encouraging people to buy now and lock in the rates.

However, when interest rates start to head north - possibly from August / September time I'd guess - in order to clamp down on inflation (still over 3% ie 50% higher than the BoE's target) and to encourage overseas investment, further falls are likely as good mortgage deals dry up.

Add in the increased tax burden as NI goes up (from 2011), fiscal drag on the personal allowance and basic rate band, bringing back stamp duty on properties in the £125K - £175K mark, VAT increasing back to 17.5% and - probably - tax hikes to the HR and BR tax bands to pay off the huge debt the UK's then disposable income will go down for those lucky enough still to have jobs despite the recession, further restricting affordability.

Anyone buying now should realise that they're doing it to get a good fixed rate over the next 5 to 15 years, and not because they think they're getting a bargain that's going to appreciate in the short term! 

Tue, 05/05/2009 - 14:59
Simon-Weye:

I think house prices have plateaued for a few months due to the tax money pumped into the lending regime making funds temporarily more readily available and the historically low interest rates encouraging people to buy now and lock in the rates.

However, when interest rates start to head north - possibly from August / September time I'd guess - in order to clamp down on inflation (still over 3% ie 50% higher than the BoE's target) and to encourage overseas investment, further falls are likely as good mortgage deals dry up.

Add in the increased tax burden as NI goes up (from 2011), fiscal drag on the personal allowance and basic rate band, bringing back stamp duty on properties in the £125K - £175K mark, VAT increasing back to 17.5% and - probably - tax hikes to the HR and BR tax bands to pay off the huge debt the UK's then disposable income will go down for those lucky enough still to have jobs despite the recession, further restricting affordability.

Anyone buying now should realise that they're doing it to get a good fixed rate over the next 5 to 15 years, and not because they think they're getting a bargain that's going to appreciate in the short term! 

Tue, 05/05/2009 - 14:59
Simon-Weye:

I think house prices have plateaued for a few months due to the tax money pumped into the lending regime making funds temporarily more readily available and the historically low interest rates encouraging people to buy now and lock in the rates.

However, when interest rates start to head north - possibly from August / September time I'd guess - in order to clamp down on inflation (still over 3% ie 50% higher than the BoE's target) and to encourage overseas investment, further falls are likely as good mortgage deals dry up.

Add in the increased tax burden as NI goes up (from 2011), fiscal drag on the personal allowance and basic rate band, bringing back stamp duty on properties in the £125K - £175K mark, VAT increasing back to 17.5% and - probably - tax hikes to the HR and BR tax bands to pay off the huge debt the UK's then disposable income will go down for those lucky enough still to have jobs despite the recession, further restricting affordability.

Anyone buying now should realise that they're doing it to get a good fixed rate over the next 5 to 15 years, and not because they think they're getting a bargain that's going to appreciate in the short term! 

Tue, 05/05/2009 - 14:59
Simon-Weye:

Whoah, sort out the submit button, money wise!

Aha, I think the problem is your captcha box appears AFTER submission, not before, and does not state the captcha is case sensitive...

Tue, 05/05/2009 - 15:03
Guest (not verified):

without the immigrants, no one will wipe your granny's bums in a care home! wish you won't end up in a home.

Wed, 06/05/2009 - 09:22
Guest (not verified):

I think that it depends very much on where you live. Some areas have been much harder hit than others. Prices here in Hampshire have dropped quite a bit but many people have taken their houses off the market and the houses that are up for sale seem to be moving quite quickly. If my money wasn't already tied up I would definitely be buying another property now, with a view to holding it for maybe 5-10 years.

Fri, 08/05/2009 - 15:21
bradleyt:

I think I may be one of the few people that is not too concerned with the housing market. These downturns always happen then they come back up.

Wed, 10/06/2009 - 22:18